By: Matt Garrott The stock market is either red-hot, extremely average, or still in recovery depending on your perspective.  Let’s torture the data until it tells us what we want to hear. The red-hot stock market The S&P 500 is up 18.5% and we’re only halfway through 2019!  Unemployment is incredibly low.  Inflation [...]

By: Matt Garrott The month of May was not kind to equity markets as the S&P 500 dropped 6%.  International stocks were down for the month, too.  The EAFE lost 5% while Emerging Markets were down 7%.  Sell in May and go away?  We don’t think so.  The timing of the drop is [...]

By: Matt Garrott 2019 is off to a hot start as the S&P 500 gained 13.7%.  Will the market keep up this pace for the rest of the year?  It’s unlikely, but the “pace” is also a bit misleading.  We have not yet made up the ground lost in last quarter’s sell-off.  This [...]

By: Matt Garrott This Commentary Brought to You in Part by Macaroni and Cheese The latest earnings report for Kraft Heinz was a shocker.  Operating results were flat, there was a huge impairment ($15.4 billion) of goodwill, and the dividend was cut by 40%.  On top of it all, the SEC is investigating [...]

By: Matt Garrott The S&P 500 seemed destined for bear territory (a fall of at least 20%) at the end of last year.  It was down 17% when the US government shut down on Saturday December 22nd.  On Monday, the 24th, a frenzied half-day of trading left the market down more than 19% [...]

By: Matt Garrott What Happened in 2018 Hail to the King – Cash was king in 2018, up 1.87%.  Chances are your savings account outperformed your portfolio this year, as 2018 was a highly unusual year where virtually every other broad asset class lost money.  Keep in mind that inflation probably outperformed your [...]

By: Matt Garrott The S&P 500 finished November with the largest weekly gain in 6 years.  What does this tell us about the market?  Maybe it tells us that the October sell-off was an overreaction.  More likely it tells us the same thing the October sell-off told us:  No one can predict short-term [...]

By: Matt Garrott Our message to remain true to your financial plan and focus on long-term goals rather than today’s headlines is a familiar one.  Cynics may wonder why our commentary is so plain and treats common sense as not-so-common.  We don’t forecast GDP.  We’re not trading in reaction to Tweets.  You don’t [...]

By: Matt Garrott We are often asked, particularly by prospects, for investment ideas – something outside the box that goes up like a stock and protects on the downside.  All they want is 10% annual returns with no negative years.  No such thing exists or we’d have been trick or treating in St. [...]

By: Matt Garrott The S&P 500 is up 10% year to date.  Does it feel like it?  While the US stock market is having a strong year and the economy flexes its muscles, long-term investors may be feeling left behind.  Why?  Domestic stocks are up double digits, but a portfolio of 60% stocks [...]