Market Commentary 3/31/2026
The S&P 500 Total Return Index dropped 4.3% in the first quarter while the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index was flat. A diversified portfolio outperformed US Large Cap stocks due to exposure to domestic small and mid cap stocks as well as international equities. For the last couple of years, spending on AI has buoyed the markets regardless of the news cycle. This changed in the first quarter as markets whipsawed in reaction to headlines. The big story is the joint strikes on Iran by Israel and the United States. While the strikes successfully diminished Iran’s conventional military threat, the Strait of Hormuz remains (as of 3/31/2026) a contested choke point. Much of the world’s energy supply flows through the Strait. As the conflict continues, that supply has been reduced, raising prices on oil and other goods.
From a portfolio perspective, there is danger in extrapolating the short-term into the long-term. Baseball fans experience this every season. For example, the Guardians’ rookie phenom Chase DeLauter is off to a hot start with four home runs, putting him on pace to hit over 100 this season. Will that happen? No (happy to be wrong on this one).
People who want to sound smart will say uncertainty is high right now. Invert this and ask when the last time certainty was high. The answer is never. Many investors recognize market uncertainty through a progression:
- Overwhelmed: I don’t know anything
- Skeptical: Nobody knows anything
- Intentional: Nobody knows everything, but you can know your own thing
Their focus shifts from feeling out of control due to market movements and headlines to putting together a plan to achieve their own specific goals. Once an investor’s perspective is focused, the market feels less adversarial and more like a tool they can use.
Fairway has been busy beyond the investment markets. Ben Karlo and Jake Yeager earned promotions to Senior Associate. Dina Leader Powers and Brian Tullio advanced to the partner team. Your favorite Director of Investment Research celebrated his 20-year work anniversary with Fairway. Congratulations to all! You may have also seen Fairway names quoted in articles from the Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, and USA Today. Follow Fairway on LinkedIn and Facebook, for regular updates on firm activities and accolades.
Market Commentary Disclosures
Fairway Wealth Management LLC (“Fairway”) is an SEC Registered Investment Adviser. Registration does not imply an endorsement of the firm by securities regulators nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.
This post represents the opinions of Fairway as of the date indicated and may contain forward-looking statements, predictions and forecasts. Forward-looking statements necessarily involve risks and uncertainties, and undue reliance should not be placed on them. There can be no assurance that forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate, and actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Market conditions can vary widely over time and can result in a loss of portfolio value.
This post is prepared using third-party sources. Fairway considers these sources to be reliable; however, it cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information received. This information is educational and general in nature and is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as specific investment, tax, or legal advice. Charts are provided for the illustrative purpose of general market commentary. No client or prospective client should assume the above information serves as the receipt of, or substitute for, personalized individual advice.
