Market Commentary 2/28/2026
Going into the weekend, I had a great commentary ready to publish. An essay speculating that Artificial Intelligence could devastate the software industry was making the rounds on social media and software stocks were plunging. I had a good recap, a solid response, and tied it all into Fairway’s investment philosophy. Then the weekend happened and geopolitically, March roared in like a lion. Israel and the United States launched strikes against Iran. The software story was old news. The lesson? Wait until the last minute to write market commentaries.
Market futures on Monday were down over 1% heading into the open, but trading ended the day flat. The energy sector jumped up 2% while uncertainty around the military strikes elevated market volatility as a whole. Like any market disruption, we don’t fixate on the reason the market moves. We look at what is actually happening in portfolios. From there, a good financial plan shows what (if any) adjustments need to be made. No predictions or geopolitical expertise required.
The speed with which the investing world’s attention shifted from software to Iran is a case study on why portfolio construction shouldn’t be based on the crisis du jour. Before the big news of the weekend, a macroeconomic essay outlining an AI-manufactured dystopia scenario sent software stocks tumbling while chips and energy rallied, despite critiques that the piece ignored fundamental market dynamics. The narrative’s impact was likely the intended goal, as it later surfaced that the authors were short software and long semiconductors, turning a hypothetical 2028 crisis into a possible 2026 profit.
It’s already been a year of noisy headlines. Investors second guessing their allocations should ask themselves what drives their investment decisions. Are headlines and soundbytes in charge of the portfolio? Or is your financial plan taking advantage of these market fluctuations? If you were to describe Fairway to a friend, you might sum us up as, “Passive investing, active wealth management.” Too much credit goes to investing while the real driver of wealth is consistent execution of activities that provide reliable value like estate and tax planning. You might not brag to your friends about a low expense ratio or timely rebalancing, but your balance sheet will appreciate it.
Market Commentary Disclosures
Fairway Wealth Management LLC (“Fairway”) is an SEC Registered Investment Adviser. Registration does not imply an endorsement of the firm by securities regulators nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.
This post represents the opinions of Fairway as of the date indicated and may contain forward-looking statements, predictions and forecasts. Forward-looking statements necessarily involve risks and uncertainties, and undue reliance should not be placed on them. There can be no assurance that forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate, and actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Market conditions can vary widely over time and can result in a loss of portfolio value.
This post is prepared using third-party sources. Fairway considers these sources to be reliable; however, it cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information received. This information is educational and general in nature and is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as specific investment, tax, or legal advice. Charts are provided for the illustrative purpose of general market commentary. No client or prospective client should assume the above information serves as the receipt of, or substitute for, personalized individual advice.
