April 2026 Market Commentary
The S&P 500 gained 10.5%, including dividends, in April. This continues the whipsaw trend we saw in the first quarter. The index was down on the year as much as 7% near the end of March then rallied to a positive 5.7% gain and new all-time highs as of April 30th.
Middle East and Mid West
The Strait of Hormuz remains contested, elevating global energy prices. Closer to home, two refineries in the Great Lakes region have experienced disruptions, an additional price spike Midwesterners have noticed at the pump.
Changing of the Guard
Jay Powell attended his final Federal Reserve meeting as Chairman (he intends to remain on the board of governors) as the group held rates steady. Warren Buffett also stepped down at Berkshire Hathaway as Greg Abel took the reins as CEO. The move at Berkshire officially occurred earlier this year, but the spotlight shone bright on Abel during last month’s shareholder meeting.
“How are you positioning your portfolio in light of [latest headline]?”
We get this sort of question from Wall Street product sellers a lot. It’s a way for them to get their audience into a reactive headspace. Why did they choose that particular headline to focus on? Conveniently, they are usually selling the exact solution to that headline.
Their seemingly innocent question implies that real investors day-trade their portfolios according to every media narrative change. If you haven’t been doing this, it may feel like you haven’t been doing anything. For investors who stick to a financial plan is the answer to the question, “Nothing”?
Absolutely not. None of these headlines were predictable and no one knows the magnitude or even the directionality any one event will have on the markets. So how are we positioning portfolios in light of [latest headline]? “We hedge against unknowable risks with diversification and disciplined rebalancing.” There’s no need to predict the future. The process is repeatable and relies on data, not some talking head’s hunch of the day.
